01 chapter decision-making and decision-making system

One, the basic concept of decision science

Decision-making is a basic function of human in social production activities, probably began with the birth of human thinking to solve problems when they should have the decision, so specific what is decision?At the time of contact decisions we learn it is necessary to know the decision this basic concept.

Coming up from the surface meaning to understand, is decided, was to strategy, to sum up decisions can be understood as a strategy or method, then continue to extend the concept of decision-making is one of the biggest characteristic is decided to for one thing, so when this decision will show a feature - targeted, in order to achieve the goal of decision we must play to the subjective initiative, so the decision is based on people on the play to subjective initiative, the development of the subjective initiative is set up in our choice of the proposed scheme and implementation process.Clear and decision is closely related to some basic characteristics after we come to decision under a definition: the decision is that people in order to achieve a particular goal, play to people's subjective initiative to collect information, make plan, optimizing the process of plan, execute a series of activities.

Second, the decision-making features

(1), decision has targeted

Decision is to achieve a particular goal according to the possibility of objective, in possession of certain information and experience, on the basis of using a certain method or model to make a feasibility plan, so the decision here, the primary feature is targeted, and the target is used to measure the final decision whether or not the key to success factors, if not reach the target, then decision is necessarily fail.

(2), decision-making is a systems engineering, must play to people's subjective initiative

The subjective initiative, in fact, here is reflected in the operation of a team.Have a good plan and strategy, without a strong executive team, then the decision is an armchair strategist, so the decision is not only an art, skill, a good decision is essentially a very complicated project, need to achieve the ultimate goal, which is why a lot of advisory firms cannot obtain the key to long-term development, can only put forward the solution to solve the problem, not notice plan maneuverability, without notice to whether the scheme in the customer to get effective implementation.Put forward good program does not necessarily will get good results, also not necessarily can achieve the desired goal.Good decisions, therefore, it is a system engineering, is a question, to analyze and solve problems.

(3), a decision is an optimal scheme selection process

In our use of already know the information when making decisions may be a variety of solutions are obtained.We get from A to B, for instance, may have A lot of road to achieve the goal of to B, so we should choose the path to achieve to get from A to B?Under normal circumstances, in order to reduce the amount of time from A to B and energy, reduce unnecessary costs, we will choose the closest and most convenient transportation of the road to B to achieve goals.This is essentially what we want to discuss the third feature, a decision is an optimal scheme selection process.

Each can achieve decision scheme is simple and complex, such as positive and negative, so we should choose the then through the most simple solution method, the least amount of resources to achieve the highest goal.

(4), decision-making to be operable

Decision to proceed from the actual and plan must be chosen according to the current actual situation, using the reliable information system, multi-angle thinking thinking more, rather than on paper.The right decision for us to achieve target shortcut, wrong decisions not only cannot achieve the goal, also will waste a lot of manpower and material resources and financial resources.The correctness of the decision-making and scientific nature of enterprise management activity plays a decisive role, even may directly affect the enterprise's survival.

Three, the classification of decision-making system

A complete decision-making system is divided into information system, operation system, decision-making system, execution system.

Information systems: the information system for decision making is the first step is also the most key of a system.A scientific decision-making system, first of all, is to create a complete information system to specialized in research, collection, statistics of all kinds of data, the image information system, we might as well call it business intelligence, information system for the next operation system established an operation on the basis of analysis.

Operation system: operation system is a system for the processing of data or information, some can be filtered in the system for decision making to achieve the goal of no valuable information, keep closely related to decision-making information.Operation system is can be a formula, can be a model, also can be a similar computer program operation system.But use a formula or a model, finally it is concluded that the data is in order to achieve the intended target and service, and the system is made up of some senior expert to master, they not only proficient in the operation of these models, and grasp the rich professional knowledge, in this system, expert (researchers) using modern operational research and forecasting model of data provided by the information system, system of decision problem is studied, using different methods from different perspectives to the prerequisite of comprehensive analysis to achieve the decision goal.At the same time produce a variety of alternative decision scheme.

Decision system, decision-making system is a core system of the whole decision-making system, all the preliminary work is for the sake of decision system and service.This system made by some experts (researchers) in combination with the current actual situation, based on a large number of reliable information, make full use of the abundance of decision knowledge by reasoning, discrimination, discussion, analysis and other methods, compare a variety of solutions of optimal slightly, from a variety of scheme selection, finally a feasible solution.

Perform system: system is the litmus test of a decision whether or not the "brilliant" in the end, is used as the measure of the success of decision making, at the same time is a key link to achieve anticipated goal of the decision.In this link is often form a strong executive team, led by the panel will be implemented decision scheme.At the time of implementation should establish an effective execution feedback system, timely feedback of the problems in the implementation process and report to the experts, performed by the experts put forward in the first problem diagnosis and solution.